Live composite · same engine as the dashboard

AI Bubble Watch

Where excess is building in the AI trade — valuation stretch, concentration, breadth and positioning — scored live from market data, not opinion.

39
● Cool

What it measures

A 0–100 read on how stretched the trade is — blending semiconductor price stretch, index concentration, breadth, positioning and recent momentum/drawdown (so it cools when tech actually rolls over). High means the crowd is leaning hard one way; low means washed out. (Fundamental valuation is tracked separately in the radar below.)

Valuation
40
AI semi fwd P/E + MU cycle %ile · DRAM/HBM contract price = memory-peak tell
Concentration
30
S&P vs equal-weight, 126d
Breadth
58
S&P vs equal-weight, 63d
Positioning
34
SMH 14-day RSI
Momentum
35
QQQ 10-day move + drawdown
Live read
SignalCooling on a real semi selloff. SMH is down ~11% in 5 days and its 14-day RSI has fallen to ~44 — positioning is washing OUT, not crowded. But DRAM/HBM contract prices are stretched near a memory-cycle peak, so valuation risk is rising even as forward earnings still screen cheap.
InterpretationThe froth has shifted from the multiple to the memory-pricing cycle. Forward P/Es look cheap because earnings exploded on peak DRAM/HBM pricing; if that pricing rolls over, the cheap multiple re-rates upward. Positioning has already cooled with the selloff — the swing factor now is whether memory contract prices hold their peak.
The five layers
Each axis is one of the five live composite inputs (0–100, higher = more stretched). Plotted from the same numbers shown above and refreshed whenever scores.json updates.
Valuation Health
Healthy
Capex Conversion
Watch
Memory & Semi
Late cycle
Power & Infra
Early innings
Market Structure
Elevated
Trigger signals

▲ Pushes the score toward FROTHY

DRAM/HBM contract prices peak or spot inverts — memory-cycle top
Capex-to-revenue ratio widens
Hyperscaler capex cuts announced
AI revenue growth decelerates
Breadth narrows as the index makes highs

▼ Confirms COOL

AI revenue growth re-accelerates
Leader PEGs stay below 1.0
Market breadth expands
Vendor financing stabilizes
Grid & power buildout timelines accelerate

Important disclaimer

M3I Research is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, or a recommendation of any investment strategy. The scores, signals, gauges and interpretations are outputs of a proprietary research framework and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to historical patterns, valuations and market levels describe past observations and do not guarantee future results. All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. M3I Research is not a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer. Always do your own research and consult a qualified, licensed financial professional before making any investment decision.

← Back to the dashboard