Timestamped & publicly verifiable
Prediction Audit Trail
Every M3I prediction with the date it was made, the original call, the outcome, and links to the source posts. No edits, no hindsight.
The record
#1 — Negotiated deal by ~April 14
Made March 10, 2026 · Day 11
The call
Assigned 42% probability to a negotiated deal / ceasefire by ~April 14.
Outcome
Ceasefire confirmed April 7 (Day 38) — 7 days ahead of target.
#2 — Resolution window April 6–13
Made April 1, 2026 · Day 32
The call
Narrowed the resolution window to April 6–13.
Outcome
Ceasefire landed April 7 — inside the predicted window.
#3 — Ceasefire by ~April 14
Made March 10, 2026 · Day 11
The call
42% probability of a ceasefire by ~April 14 (Path B).
Outcome
Confirmed Day 38 (April 7) — 7 days ahead of the outer target.
#4 — Oil above $100 as escalation signal #1
Made March 30, 2026 · Day 30
The call
Flagged oil above $100 as the primary Path A escalation trigger.
Outcome
Brent hit $109 on April 2 — as modeled.
#5 — 81% ceasefire-collapse risk
Made April 9, 2026 · Day 40
The call
Model assigned 81% headline-driven collapse risk despite a 57% extension probability.
Outcome
Vance left Pakistan after 21h with no deal (Day 43) — the 5th failed cycle; limited naval blockade announced.
#6 — Framework deal by ~May 14–15
Made April 14, 2026 · Day 45
The call
Composite model predicted a framework-deal resolution by ~May 14–15 with 60% deal probability (Pattern Engine first targeted ~May 5).
Outcome
Missed. No deal by mid-May — the model was too aggressive on timing, and the resolution window had to be pushed out.
What it still got right
The trajectory: ceasefire → failed talks → escalation → de-escalation → structured diplomatic process — exactly what played out. Correctly classified a resource war (not ideological) and called the blockade as escalate-to-de-escalate, not terminal.
Why it missed
The date. Underestimated Iran's pain tolerance behind five preconditions, did not model the Lebanon front as a separate blocking variable, and treated enrichment as resolvable rather than a standalone deadlock.
#7 — War settled within the revised ~July 31 window
Revised call May 15, 2026 · CONFIRMED on signature Jun 17, 2026
The call
After the May miss, the model re-anchored the resolution window to ~July 31 and held a resolution bias (deal more likely than collapse) through the escalate-to-de-escalate cycle that followed.
Outcome — CONFIRMED on signature, ~6 weeks ahead of the revised window
SIGNED 2026-06-17 at Versailles. President Trump signed a hard copy of the US–Iran 14-point agreement at the Palace of Versailles during a dinner with French President Emmanuel Macron after the close of the G7 summit —
two days earlier than the previously announced Jun 19 Bürgenstock ceremony in Switzerland. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian's signed counter-copy was published by Iranian state media IRNA. At Iran's insistence the document was signed in
both English and Farsi. The G7 joint statement praised the deal. Trump set a public
60-day implementation redline:
"If it doesn't get done in 60 days, we go back to bombing." The Hormuz reopening commitment stands; the US naval blockade has been lifted. Resolved roughly
six weeks ahead of the ~July 31 window.Sources:
CNN live updates — Trump signs hard copy of US-Iran agreement (Jun 17) ·
NBC live updates — G7 summit / US-Iran agreement (Jun 17) ·
CNN Politics — Dinner at Versailles, alpine air and an Iran agreement ·
NPR — Trump administration releases agreement with IranEarlier track (now superseded by signature): Jun 11 — Trump announced
"We just made a great settlement of the war with Iran," with documents in final form. Jun 15 — Trump, Vance and Iran's Ghalibaf digitally signed the 60-day MoU. Jun 17 — Hard-copy signature at Versailles closes the prediction.
How the model called itAI Predictive Intelligence
The War-Pattern Engine — resource wars vs ideological wars
The call wasn't a hot take — it was a base rate. The Pattern Engine analysed every US conflict since 1861 (the Civil War to today) and sorted each into one of three types: resource, ideological, or occupation. The split that drives everything: wars fought over resources — oil, ports, shipping lanes — resolve dramatically faster than wars fought over ideology.
Resource wars · oil · ports · shipping lanes
Independent verification
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