AI PREDICTIVE INTELLIGENCE Live · scored from the M3I feed

Geopolitical Risks

A live tracker of the geopolitical flashpoints most likely to rattle markets — each scored 0–100 from the M3I models and refreshed from the feed. The US–Iran deal call has resolved (MoU signed Jun 17); this now tracks what's live across five theaters.

Global Geopolitical TensionLive · from the feed
60
● HIGH
The US–Iran ceasefire has collapsed — Trump declared the MoU 'over' after US strikes on 80+ Iranian targets and a 6% oil spike. Loading live read…
AI PredictionM3I predictive intelligence
Does the Jul 8 collapse hold — or snap back to a deal?
Forward call · history + behavior + base rates
Lean · de-escalation
De-escalation 55%Grind 30%Wider war 15%
Base case — De-escalation restored
Short, sharp flare-up → back to talks (~4–6 weeks)
Trump paired the strikes with "talks can continue," and a signed framework already exists from Jun 17. Resource/oil wars resolve fast — the Pattern Engine's ~103-day median, ~70% inside 1.5× it — and neither side gains from a closed Hormuz (Iran needs its own exports; China leans on Tehran to keep flows). The likeliest path is a face-saving re-ceasefire.
Grind
Tit-for-tat, no deal, no full war
Strikes and shipping disruption continue intermittently for months without a formal settlement — the "brinkmanship over Hormuz" pattern that ran April–June, minus the deal.
Wider war
Sustained war / Hormuz closure
Post-strike hardliner dynamics, revenge sentiment after the funerals, and the nuclear-threshold wildcard tip it into a sustained, widening conflict with a prolonged strait closure. Low-probability, but the highest-impact tail for oil.
WhyThe base rate says resource wars end fast and this one has a ready-made deal to fall back on; the behavioral read says Trump strikes to gain leverage, then deals. What breaks the call is an escalation spiral after the strikes — which is why the tail isn't zero.
The flashpoints5 tracked
88
SEVERE
US–Iran / Hormuz ▲Brent crude
CEASEFIRE OVER (Jul 8): Trump declared the Jun 17 MoU 'over' after the US struck 80+ military targets in Iran (Jul 7), retaliating for IRGC strikes on ~3 tankers in Hormuz. Oil +6%; naval blockade threatened. Open conflict resumed.
US strikes 80+ targetsCeasefire 'over'Oil +6% / blockade
60
HIGH
Russia–Ukraine / NATO ▲Brent · EU gas · defense
Russia's deadliest Kyiv strikes in days (Jul 6, 20+ killed; Jul 2, 31 killed), even as Trump held separate Putin and Zelensky calls Jul 5 to seek an end. EU released $4.4B for Ukrainian drones.
Kyiv strikesEnergy / gasTrump-brokered calls
44
ELEVATED
China–Taiwan ▬SMH · TWD
PLA incursions have eased off their 2024–25 peak (12 days with no median-line crossings in June), but carrier transits are normalizing and Taiwan approved a $25B defense boost. Grey-zone pressure, no kinetic — the market's largest structural tail.
PLA incursionsSemis / TSMCCarrier transits
46
ELEVATED
US–China trade & tech ▬SOX · SMH · FXI
Managed friction: H200 sales to China allowed under volume caps alongside a 25% tariff on advanced chips; Nvidia's China share has halved to ~50%. Structural overhang on semis, not kinetic.
Chip export controls25% chip tariffRare earths
38
MODERATE
Red Sea / Houthis ▬Freight · Brent
The Houthis declared an end to Red Sea attacks, but a Jul 5 skiff attack off Hodeida and standing threats to resume keep the Suez reopening fragile.
Shipping / SuezFreight ratesHouthi threats
Bands: 0–25 Low · 25–40 Moderate · 40–60 Elevated · 60–75 High · 75–100 Severe. Each score blends kinetic activity, diplomacy trend, and a market proxy; the composite weights them by market impact.
The call that resolved
US–Iran deal by ~July 31
Predicted → CONFIRMED Jun 17, 2026 · ~6 weeks early
CONFIRMED ✓

The model's US–Iran resolution call was CONFIRMED on Jun 17, when Trump signed the 14-point MoU at the Palace of Versailles (Pezeshkian counter-copy via IRNA; the G7 statement praised the deal; the naval blockade lifted) — ~6 weeks ahead of the model's ~Jul 31 window. It now sits in the track record; the US–Iran / Hormuz flashpoint above carries the forward, live read on the theater. See the Audit Trail →

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Predictions are scored live and updated from the feed. Track the record on the Audit Trail. More live predictions coming soon.